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Taiwan’s independent auto repair shops are facing elimination
The rise and fall of industries follow certain rules. Through in-depth investigation and analysis,It is predicted that more than half of independent auto repair shops will go out of business within 10 years in Taiwan.
Writing a Research Proposal
1.A concise statement of the problemThe automotive aftermarket is a huge market, and the numerous maintenance and repair shops that support this market are facing the fate of change or disappearance due to factors such as the rise of the Internet, e-commerce, and electric vehicles. This situation is common all over the world. How fast are maintenance and repair shops closing down and disappearing? What might the situation be like in the next decade?
汽車的AfterMarket是個龐大的市場，而撐起這個市場的眾多的維修保養廠，受到網路、電商、電動車的興起等因素影響，正面臨改變或消失的命運，此情況普遍發生在世界各地，維修保養廠歇業消失的速度有多快呢，未來十年的情況可能是怎樣呢？
There are nearly 12,000 maintenance shops in Taiwan with fewer than 10 employees, servicing approximately 7 million vehicles. Suppliers to these maintenance shops are very concerned about changes in the industry over the next decade, which will affect the direction of their expansion or contraction of investment. The government also has to worry that if the industry changes too quickly, it will inevitably lead to an increase in unemployment.
在台灣有將近12000家工作人數少於10人的保養廠，服務約700萬輛汽車，作為這些保養廠的供應商，很關心未來十年這個產業的變化，這會影響到他們擴大或緊縮投資的方向，政府也須擔心萬一產業變動太快，勢必造成失業率的提昇。 2. Comments on the information that is available, with one or two key references
- This study investigates the status of Taiwan’s automobile repair shops, market trends, and operators’ assessments of the next decade, and makes predictions on possible market changes in the next decade.
- Global electric vehicle sales account for >14% of all car sales and are increasing year by year.
- Traditional car repair shops cannot repair electric vehicles.
此研究調查台灣汽車保修廠的情況、市場變化趨勢、以及經營者對未來十年的評估，做出未來十年可能發生的市場變化，做出預測。
- 全球電動車銷售，占全部汽車銷售的比率>14%，而且逐年上升。
- 傳統的汽車維修廠，無法維修電動車。 3.A description of the research design that includes:
(a)the economic model,
1.🤣還在頭痛！想不出來怎樣表達...
(b)the methods,
questionnaire 問卷調查
Age of person in charge and average age of staff. Is there a
successor? Are there any expansion plans? What are your views on the
next 5 to 10 years?
負責人年齡、工作人員平均年齡。有無接班人？ 有無擴充計畫？對未來5、10年的看法。
(c)data sources,
(d)estimation, hypothesis testing, and prediction procedures, including the econometric software and version used
4.The potential contribution of the research
- Such forecasts can serve as an important reference for adjusting strategies of related industries and government policies.
- It is also a forecast reference for the possibility of the same situation happening in different parts of the world.
也是世界不同地區可能發生同樣情況的預測參考。
1. Statement of the Problem
2. Review of the Literature
Briefly summarize the relevant literature in the research area you have
chosen and clarify how your work extends our knowledge. By all means,
cite the works of others who have motivated your research, but keep it
brief. You do not have to survey everything that has been written on the
topic.
3.🤣也是頭痛中！ 一堆東西需要讀，也不知方向對不對...
1.Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction 創造性破壞:
Core Idea: Economic progress occurs through innovation that destroys old structures while creating new ones. Entrepreneurs and firms introducing disruptive technologies are the drivers.
2.Kondratiev Waves經濟的長週期波動:
Core Idea: Nikolai Kondratiev proposed long economic cycles (40-60 years) driven by major technological breakthroughs (e.g., steam, railways, IT). Each wave births new industries and phases out old ones.
3.Perez, C. (2002). "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital":
Builds on Kondratiev waves, detailing how technological revolutions (e.g., Industrial Revolution, Information Age) restructure economies over decades.
"Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital Five Technological Revolutions": 1-industrial, 2-steam and railways, 3-steel electricity and heavy engineering, 4-oil automobiles and mass production, 5-information and telecommunications.
4-燃油車的歷史已超過100年，正在面臨5-的衝擊、快速轉變中
4.Coccia(2020)分析美國音樂產業發現：市場份額轉折點-新技術市占達23%時
Mario Coccia [Asymmetry of the technological cycle of disruptive innovations](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09537325.2020.1785415)
5.根據S&P Global Mobility與國際能源署IEA的報告，全球電動車銷售量呈現顯著增長：
- 2020年：全球銷售約300萬輛，占新車銷售量4.6%。
- 2023年：銷售量達1,418萬輛，市占率15.8%。
- 2024年：預估銷售量約1,700萬輛，市占率超過20%。
增長速率加快，
6.正在接近市場份額的轉折點tipping point，台灣的保養廠經營者的感受、和預期如何呢？對這各大變化有何影響呢？
1.Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction 創造性破壞:
Core Idea: Economic progress occurs through innovation that destroys old structures while creating new ones. Entrepreneurs and firms introducing disruptive technologies are the drivers.
2.Kondratiev Waves經濟的長週期波動:
Core Idea: Nikolai Kondratiev proposed long economic cycles (40-60 years) driven by major technological breakthroughs (e.g., steam, railways, IT). Each wave births new industries and phases out old ones.
3.Perez, C. (2002). "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital":
Builds on Kondratiev waves, detailing how technological revolutions (e.g., Industrial Revolution, Information Age) restructure economies over decades.
"Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital Five Technological Revolutions": 1-industrial, 2-steam and railways, 3-steel electricity and heavy engineering, 4-oil automobiles and mass production, 5-information and telecommunications.
4-燃油車的歷史已超過100年，正在面臨5-的衝擊、快速轉變中
4.Coccia(2020)分析美國音樂產業發現：市場份額轉折點-新技術市占達23%時
Mario Coccia [Asymmetry of the technological cycle of disruptive innovations](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09537325.2020.1785415)
5.根據S&P Global Mobility與國際能源署IEA的報告，全球電動車銷售量呈現顯著增長：
- 2020年：全球銷售約300萬輛，占新車銷售量4.6%。
- 2023年：銷售量達1,418萬輛，市占率15.8%。
- 2024年：預估銷售量約1,700萬輛，市占率超過20%。
增長速率加快，
6.正在接近市場份額的轉折點tipping point，台灣的保養廠經營者的感受、和預期如何呢？對這各大變化有何影響呢？
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