🎯 113下學期 | phd | 論文p2 | p3a-draft |

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新科技替代舊產業的過程在經濟學與技術演化研究中存在多個理論框架，主要呈現三種規律特徵：

一、生產革命的階段性演化

Kondratieff長波理論 結合生產革命分析指出，每個技術變革週期包含：

初始創新階段：突破性技術出現（如蒸汽機、互聯網）

現代化擴散階段：技術應用擴展至各領域（約持續50-70年），例如電力普及推動工業生產線革新

最終創新階段：技術成熟後催生次級創新（如智能手機衍生app經濟）
此理論在Grinin等人(2016)的研究中驗證，發現技術擴散速度與經濟增長率呈非線性關係。

二、技術替代的市場機制

顛覆性創新模型 Disruptive Innovation

Christensen的理論指出新技術替代路徑：

初期服務邊緣市場（如數位相機替代膠卷相機）

技術軌道加速提升（摩爾定律效應）

主流市場性能超越臨界點（電動車續航突破500公里門檻）

創造性破壞週期 Creative Destruction

Schumpeter提出破壞週期平均為8-10年，具備：

舊產業利潤率下降（印刷媒體廣告收入衰退曲線）

資源重新配置效應（美國音樂產業技術變遷案例）

就業結構轉移滯後（平均18-24個月）

三、實證研究發現的規律性

技術生命週期特徵

Coccia(2020)分析美國音樂產業發現：

	舊技術衰退期	新技術成長期
平均持續時間	5.2年	7.8年
市場份額轉折點	新技術市占達23%時

經濟貢獻比例

NBER研究顯示：

創造性破壞僅貢獻25%經濟增長

現有企業改進占65%

新產品類別創造占8%

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關鍵理論文獻

《Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital》

提出技術-經濟範式轉移五階段模型

Coccia M. (2020) Cyclical phenomena in technological change

實證測量技術替代速度與產業集中度關係

Christensen et al. (2015) Disruptive Innovation

建立技術替代的"S曲線預測模型"

這些研究顯示技術替代既存在週期性特徵，又受市場結構、政策法規與社會接受度等變數影響，形成非線性演化路徑。當前AI技術替代週期顯示出壓縮現象，從技術成熟到產業替代完成僅需3-5年，較20世紀縮短60%。

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The phenomenon you’re describing—where new technologies lead to new products, spawn new industries, and displace older ones—is a well-observed pattern in economics and innovation studies. This process is often referred to as "creative destruction," a term coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter in his 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. Below, I’ll outline the key patterns, academic theories, and some foundational research related to this cycle.

Patterns in the Cycle

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Technological Innovation as a Trigger: New technologies (e.g., steam engines, electricity, computers, AI) disrupt existing markets by introducing more efficient or entirely novel ways of meeting human needs. This often leads to the rapid growth of new industries (e.g., the internet birthed e-commerce) while rendering older ones obsolete (e.g., typewriters overtaken by computers).
🗒️Does intelligent transformation trigger technology innovation in China's NEV enterprises?

S-Curve Adoption: Technologies and industries often follow an S-shaped growth curve—slow initial adoption, rapid expansion as they scale, and then a plateau as they mature or are replaced. This pattern is evident in the rise and fall of industries like horse-drawn carriages versus automobiles.
🗒️ADOPTION CURVES-S Curves
🗒️技術採用生命週期Technology adoption life cycle

Economic Displacement: Old industries don’t vanish quietly; they resist through adaptation or lobbying (e.g., coal vs. renewable energy). However, market forces and consumer preferences typically favor the new, leading to job losses in declining sectors and job creation in emerging ones.
🗒️key term - Economic displacement

Feedback Loops: Successful new industries reinvest profits into further innovation, accelerating the cycle. For example, the smartphone industry fueled advancements in semiconductors, apps, and 5G.
🗒️Feedback Loop

Academic Theories

Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction 創造性破壞:

• Core Idea: Economic progress occurs through innovation that destroys old structures while creating new ones. Entrepreneurs and firms introducing disruptive technologies are the drivers.
• Key Work: Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. He argued that this cycle is the essence of capitalism’s dynamism.
• Implication: The decline of industries like Kodak (film photography) due to digital cameras exemplifies this.
👨‍🎓Schumpeter約瑟夫·熊彼得奧地利政治經濟學家，提出資本主義的創造性破壞」The creative destruction of capitalism 理論，被譽為「現代企業管理學之父」的彼得·杜拉克一向承認其深受熊彼德的影響。

Technology Life Cycle (TLC) 技術生命週期:

• Core Idea: Technologies evolve through phases—emergence, growth, maturity, and decline—mirroring biological life cycles. New industries emerge in the early phases, while old ones fade as the technology saturates or is superseded.
• Key Research: Abernathy, W. J., & Utterback, J. M. (1978). "Patterns of Industrial Innovation," Technology Review. They introduced the "dominant design" concept, where a standard (e.g., the internal combustion engine) locks in an industry until a new disruption occurs.
🗒️S-curve wiki技術生命週期

Diffusion of Innovations 創新擴散理論:

• Core Idea: Everett Rogers’ theory (1962, Diffusion of Innovations) explains how new technologies spread through societies via innovators, early adopters, and the majority, eventually displacing older methods.
• Application: The shift from landlines to mobile phones followed this diffusion pattern, squeezing out telegraph and payphone industries.
🗒️創新擴散理論Diffusion of innovations早期是由法蘭克·巴斯（Frank M．Bass）提出，是指一項新的觀念、事物、技術引入社會體系時的演變過程。傳播過程包含環節：即知曉、勸服、決策、證實四個環節。or Five stages of the adoption process: Awareness, Persuasion, Decision, Implementation, Continuation.

Disruptive Innovation 破壞性創新:

• Core Idea: Clayton Christensen’s framework (1997, The Innovator’s Dilemma) distinguishes between sustaining innovations (improving existing products) and disruptive innovations (new, often simpler technologies that upend markets).
• Example: Netflix’s streaming service disrupted Blockbuster’s physical rental model.
• Key Paper: Christensen, C. M. (1995). "Disruptive Technologies: Catching the Wave," Harvard Business Review.
🗒️破壞性創新https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation哈佛大學教授Clayton Christensen 1997《創新的兩難》Innovator's Dilemma 所提出。指將產品或服務透過科技性的創新，並以低價、低品質的方式，針對特殊目標消費族群，突破現有市場所能預期的消費改變。

Kondratiev Waves經濟的長週期波動:

• Core Idea: Nikolai Kondratiev proposed long economic cycles (40-60 years) driven by major technological breakthroughs (e.g., steam, railways, IT). Each wave births new industries and phases out old ones.
• Key Work: Kondratiev, N. D. (1925). The Major Economic Cycles. Modern scholars link the current wave to digital and AI technologies.
🗒️康德拉季耶夫通過 研究 ，認爲資本主義經濟發展過程中存在著長度爲48年到60年、平均爲50年的長期波動。

Related Research Papers

Foster, R. N. (1986). "Innovation: The Attacker’s Advantage," *McKinsey Quarterly*:

• Explores how new entrants with superior technology overtake incumbents, using examples like transistors replacing vacuum tubes.
📚Innovation: The Attacker's AdvantageMcKinsey 季刊
📚作者Richard N. Foster
📚SCI SpaceInnovation: The Attacker's AdvantagOpen Access Book

Tushman, M. L., & Anderson, P. (1986). "Technological Discontinuities and Organizational Environments," *Administrative Science Quarterly*:

• Introduces the idea of "competence-destroying" innovations that render existing skills and industries obsolete.
📚美國的管理學者，組織理論學家 wiki Michael L. Tushman
📚Book1986 PDFTechnological Discontinuities and Organizational Environments

Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). "The Second Machine Age":

• Discusses how digital technologies accelerate creative destruction, impacting industries like manufacturing and retail.
📚Book wiki The Second Machine Age
📚Book2014 PDF The Second Machine Age

Perez, C. (2002). "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital":

• Builds on Kondratiev waves, detailing how technological revolutions (e.g., Industrial Revolution, Information Age) restructure economies over decades.
📚wiki Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital Five Technological Revolutions: 1-industrial, 2-steam and railways, 3-steel electricity and heavy engineering, 4-oil automobiles and mass production, 5-information and telecommunications.

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Observations and Gaps

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